You are Absolutely Right on U. S Tariff

You are right that the  U.S. imposing a 26% tariff on India, as part of a broader wave of unprecedented tariffs, could signal a slow but seismic shift in global trade dynamics. The move, framed as a "reciprocal" response to India's 52% tariffs on American goods, reflects a U.S. push to prioritise domestic economic protection over decades of trade liberalization. It’s...

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U.S SLOWDOWN SERIES 1

The Fed’s operating losses—$77.6 billion in 2024 on top of $114.3 billion in 2023, totaling $224.4 billion since Q4 2022—are largely driven by a mismatch between its income and expenses. The central bank pays interest to commercial banks on reserves and to money market funds through its reverse repo facility, and those costs have ballooned as interest rates have risen. Meanwhile,...

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Rolling returns on a monthly basis for Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs)

The rolling returns every month for Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) across three major indices—Nifty 100 TRI (Large Cap), Nifty Midcap 150 TRI (Mid Cap), and Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI (Small Cap)—over various time horizons (3 to 15 years) from April 2005 to March 2025. This analysis evaluates the maximum, minimum, average, and median returns, along with the frequency of positive returns...

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Declining Consumer Spending on the Global Economy- Matter of Concern

Consumer spending is a critical driver of economic growth, particularly in the United States, where it accounts for nearly 70% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, recent economic data suggests that consumers are becoming increasingly cautious with their spending, prioritizing essentials over discretionary purchases. This shift has significant implications not only...

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A shift is coming in Investing and towards the value of Money

The biggest difficulty of this current market is that a year ago you went to the client and asked for Rs 25 lakhs for investment showing performance and the client gave you Rs 50 lakhs instead. The last 6 months have given significant knowledge to the investors that rebalancing and realignment are two critical components of investing. In my interactions with MFDs, I have found...

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Small Caps are now Historically Low in terms of Financial Leverage

In the small-cap & midcap fall of 28th Feb 2025  the valuations, 200 days DMA and the financial leverage at the same time have come down making it more provoking for a long-term investment portfolio to be built from now. The Nifty Smallcap 100 is down 24% and the Midcap 100 is down 21% since September 26, 2024, with 85% of BSE 200 stocks below their 200 DMA....

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The Premature Redemption Schedule (April–September 2025)

The RBI’s circular, issued on February 21, 2025, outlines the premature redemption dates for multiple SGB tranches issued between October 2017 and September 2020, covering the period from April 1 to September 30, 2025. This allows investors who have held their bonds for at least five years to redeem them early, aligning with the SGB scheme’s established rules. Tranches: ...

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Corporate Profit to GDP - All set again.

The role of corporate earnings in GDP is a critical barometer for measuring the future growth prospects of an economy which drives investments from the FII. India’s corporate earnings as a percentage of GDP have seen a significant rise over the past six years, reflecting a structural shift in the economy. From 6.9% of GDP in FY18 to 12.2% in FY24, corporate profitability...

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How Much Gold Is Golden?

Most projections cluster between $2,800 and $3,300 per troy ounce by year-end 2025, with some outliers suggesting higher peaks. The price in India will cross Rs.95000 in FY-26. The $3,000 mark could hit as early as Q1 if momentum holds. Since late 2024, speculation about U.S. import tariffs under President Donald Trump has boosted gold prices in New York (e.g., futures at $2,935-$2,909...

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The RBI’s USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap Auction of $10 billion for three years - Impact Analysis

The RBI’s USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap Auction of $10 billion for three years will significantly affect the Indian stock market.  The spot on that swap will inject INR liquidity by exchanging USD with banks. This is essentially a form of monetary easing without directly cutting policy rates, giving the RBI flexibility to manage liquidity. Banks selling USD to RBI for INR will...

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What does P/BV, (EBITA/EBITDA) & PAT speaks about Midcap?

 Indian midcap sectors that might perform well shortly (as of February 20, 2025), and considering the historical performance midcaps with a 10-year CAGR of 18.8% outperforming large caps (13.2%) and small caps (15.7%), albeit with higher risk (25% standard deviation and 49% max drawdown). The Nifty Midcap 100 is trading at a forward P/E of ~33x, a 58% premium over the...

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Comparison of U.S and Indian Midcap Valuations

As of February 20, 2025, U.S. midcap stocks have demonstrated resilience amid market volatility. The S&P MidCap 400 Index has outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in mid-sized companies. Valuation metrics indicate that the S&P MidCap 400 trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 16x to 18x, aligning with...

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Market Trends and the Impact of Market Cap Decline Stock wise in 2025

The financial markets are highly dynamic, and the fluctuations in stock prices often lead to significant shifts in market capitalization. As of February 17, 2025, the Indian stock market has witnessed a considerable correction, with benchmark indices falling by around 12% since late September 2024, while broader indices have declined by 21%. One of the most striking effects...

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